Due to strong selling power to suppress gold prices once again failed to appear high in oil prices, favourable conditions for market sentiment to rise of crude oil. And dollar-related market noise has recently attracted the attention of speculators, so now you want to do is to get to know us $ this like cat rebound strength is already ending, is also said that now is the real recovery. For now, the situation may be closer to the latter, though mildly said, the dollar rally was indeed appears stalled because of pressure of the credit.
New York spot market fell close to 2%, at 865.4 dollars per ounce, eventually dropped 16.8 dollars per ounce, while the combat strength of the impact of the so-called battle of 900 dollars price now seems more like a retreat rather than thinking. Mr Ban Neike stressed in his speech this morning, once the situation returned to normal, the Fed will no longer continue paying off loans programme, this policy will also exit the stage. He also mentioned that despite the current financial market environment “distance from close to normal”, but already in recovery. Silver fell 46 cents to close at US $ 16.67, Platinum fell 55 dollars to close at us $ 2050, while Palladium gold fell 6 dollars to close at US $ 438 per ounce.
When the Fed Chairman also focused on the current market’s weak performance, adjustment of dollar market appears to have occurred, at the same time may result in interest rate policy was rejected. Dollar index at 73 points below, but there is in May. Unless any time from now until October, once the “October surprise” dollar market will completely deadlocked. Future gold price expectations may be located within the price of $ 780 to 825 dollars-this is only just beginning. Observation of the market’s Chief Economist, Irwin Kellner, reminded to:
Don’t just focus on the situation, blocked the dollar rebound may also occur. Dollar to euro prices since a few weeks ago when decreased to 1.6 US dollars than the record low of 1, currently it for such a major currency price has rallied nearly 3%. Yen price increases even more.
But judging from the environment, so can’t warmer climate. After all, the past seven years, the US dollar against the euro and the yen has been in a fall in prices in the market. Initially the euro price is the equivalent of us $. In period 01 to 03, sharp rise in dollar market has stopped falling and many times, but then began to fall again and greater decline in the trend.
However, the current dollar rally has . been in the market not to create illusion of markets, but has created a good chance to rebound. It’s really a big warning appears. If you want to know why, or let us start led to root causes of the decline in dollar term talk-this is because the United States caused by excessive trade deficit sharply around the world.
Reduced-March trade deficit of just the iceberg. As long as you study, you will see that number of staggering.
Since December 2001, any decline in the volume of imports is greater than in previous years in January. Imports by up to a significant impact on the market because of its rapid rise in crude oil phase. Compared with February, in March we import of oil price increases have exceeded the 3%, 3%, and in fact this is equivalent to reducing the black material. Our export markets were equally worthy of attention. For a person holding a currency, is value, because, United States goods much cheaper, and compared to the same period in 2007, in the past year, exports were up near 10%,
These numbers are suggesting the dollar decline has deep enough, and began to balance trade conditions. In addition, there is also interest rate problem. Since the market began to believe that the Fed will cease to interest rate cuts since the campaign, the dollar has fallen. Early market fell because investors switching to the euro and other higher monetary profit result.
Next talk about oral policy. In Sterling markets some financial officials of the two camps are worried about the dollar shrink in the near future, while other people think that once the euro rally slowing United States economy will soon improve. These comments express the attitude of the stronger dollar against the euro the price should be, at the same time also represent if markets cannot be adjusted in, then the Bank may, at any appropriate stage, take coordinated measures to promote the dollar higher.
This is also the money-market trader liquidation of causes. In recent weeks, market trading market there seems to be from us $ net short-term trading trends over the years, signs of a turning net long positions. Indeed, comprehensive action to cut dollar long-term transactions of goods in the market seems to be underway. After we have seen in the dollar’s strength, similar to crude oil, gold, and some major commodity prices began to fall out of the food material. As long as the dollar does not overheat, its strength for the United States itself, and it is in the interest of trade partners.
Note: only after the Federal Reserve’s policy on dissemination of oral declaration, for November the Fed will increase 25 basis point interest rate support for 40%-changed again and the Federal Reserve also will hold a third session. Clearly, both in class $ Necker to support contained in the speech of Mr alluding to how delicate, are unable to get rid of traders concerned. Speculators now has little large, and most of the attention has focused on the selection in the second half of next year and make a profit on the asset. Although they may now turn some of the early, but they still do that. Believe that the figure will be a day to speak for them.